Neighbour's Envy : Owner's Pride - A Strategy for Foreign Policy?

Anyone who has read the recent book, "Obama's Wars" by Bob Woodward would be struck by 3 things. [a] Afghanistan has been on drift in the Bush years [b] Pakistan has been basically owning the Americans and playing them at will [c] Any American military tactic would be an exercise in find a face-saving exit.

There is a very interesting analogy attributed in the book to the Pakistani Ambassador to the United Stated Haqqani. He says that Pakistan like Iran is a nation of carpet salesman and diplomacy with them is like a negotiation. You got to keep on haggling on the price. Very often the buyer (in this case the US) gets disoriented In the entire seduction of the bargain and ends up with something they would never have bought when they started out! The realities of today are no less amusing. Al Qaeda is today in Pakistan. It is more dangerous for them to be in Afghanistan. The Americans set out in 2001 to root out Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan was their ally! If this were December 2001, the Americans would have gone into Pakistan. But somehow they are doling out billions of dollars of defence aid to Pakistan with nothing more than hope.

You have got to hand it to the Pakistanis. They are like the prodigal son of the family. Rowdy, impetuous, always getting into trouble with the good elder sibling (india) watches, yet however they get away with everything and also get the girl in the end!! Pakistan is living Salman Khan’s life!

In this context the recent pronouncements by Obama on his India visit is a landmark move by the American establishment. The Americans had already realized the Pakistani game. But for the first time they have a strategy to deal with it.

If carpet bargaining were an essential South Asian trait, sibling rivalry and jealousy is the crown. By placing up India’s role in this part of the world, the Americans have started off what could be a very bloody game in turning around Pakistan. A disaffected Pakistan could wreck havoc in the short run in the region in an attempt to role back or slow down American largesse to India. If however the Americans hold their ground, then the Pakistanis would start their carpet bargaining game again. Layer by layer new offers would be made. American leverage here is India ie the threat that they would rather get their carpets from the Big brother next door.

Possible things that would happen in the months to come would be
A] Terrorist attacks on American interests in Afghanistan
B] Another 26/11 type attack in India
C] Terrorist attacks on American interests in India
D] Pakistan giving up some senior level Taliban figures to earn goodwill

E] Pakistan giving up Mullah Omar, the Taliban chief
F] Pakistan giving up Al-Zawhari or other senior Al Qaeda leader
G] Osama Bin Laden, dying naturally (due to his kidney ailment)
H] Pakistan giving up Osama Bin Laden

The outer limit to this is the 2012 Presidential elections. If Obama gets re-elected, Pakistan sees a longer game. Else they might have an opportunity to redo from start. Either way the Americans have just unleashed a new wave of chaos. Chaos precedes stability. This unfolding diplomatic game of Neighbors Envy, Owners Pride is sure to usher in interesting times.